Blog · Tips

Hole in One Odds

3 October 2026 · 5 min read

The odds of a hole in one are most often quoted as roughly 12,500 to 1 for an average amateur golfer and around 2,500 to 1 for a tour professional. These are widely repeated estimates rather than precise measurements, but they give a fair sense of how rare an ace is.

Plenty of keen golfers play for decades without one. Others make one in their first year. Here's what the numbers mean, what changes them, and how to give yourself a better chance.

The commonly quoted estimates

Treat these as ballpark figures. You'll see slightly different numbers in different places, and sources rarely explain exactly how they were worked out. They're generally read as the chance on any single tee shot at a par 3, which is where nearly all holes in one happen.

If you want the basics first, what is a hole in one explains the term, and an ace on a par 4 also counts as an albatross.

Why the odds are so long

A golf hole is 4.25 inches across. From 150 yards, a very good shot that finishes ten feet away has still missed. To make an ace, the ball has to:

1. Fly the right distance, within a few yards.
2. Start on the right line, and curve the right amount in the wind.
3. Bounce and roll exactly into the cup, often after landing short of it.

That last part involves real luck. Small differences in how the ball lands on the green can turn a great shot into a tap-in or a hole in one.

What changes your odds

Some factors genuinely move the needle:

• Skill: better players hit more greens and finish closer, so they get more realistic chances. That's why professional odds are shorter.
• Hole length: a short par 3 played with a wedge gives a more accurate shot than a long one played with a hybrid.
• Pin position: a flag on a slope that feeds balls towards it helps. A pin tucked behind a bunker doesn't.
• How often you play: the odds per shot are long, but someone who plays twice a week faces hundreds of par-3 tee shots a year.
• Firm greens: a ball that lands short and rolls on gives more ways to go in.

How to give yourself a better chance

You can't plan a hole in one, but you can improve the quality of your chances.

• Aim to finish past the hole. A ball that comes up short has no chance of dropping. Pick a club that gets you to pin high or slightly past.
• Know your carry distances for your short irons and wedges. See how to choose the right golf club.
• Play the short par 3s more often: pitch and putt courses and short courses give lots of short-iron chances.
• Use the same routine on every tee shot, then commit to it. Our guide to how to hit a tee shot on a par 3 has more.

And if it does happen, you'll find golfers have their traditions. At many clubs, the player who makes an ace is expected to buy a round in the clubhouse. Famous examples are collected in famous holes in one.

Holes in one in Mashy

In Mashy a hole in one isn't possible. Only a putt can drop: a chip or full shot that reaches the cup lips out with an "Only a putt can drop" message. On a par 3, the best realistic score is a birdie 2, with the tee shot onto the green and one putt.

What you can chase is the next best thing. Closest to the pin mode gives you one tee shot on each of a course's par 3s and adds up the feet from the hole; the lowest total wins, and finishing inside 3 feet earns a coin. It's the same skill an ace needs, without the luck at the end.